If This Poll Is Right, Trump Can’t Win Florida — or the Election

A new poll of Florida that identified respondents who have already cast their ballots for president contains some potentially alarming news for Republican Donald Trump. Not only does it find Democrat Hillary Clinton leading among early voters by 55 percent to 38 percent, it also suggests that Trump is suffering from massive defections among registered Republican voters, with 27 percent of GOP early voters crossing over to cast a vote for Clinton.

TargetSmart estimates that 3,695,359 people have already voted in Florida. In the 2012 presidential election, 8,474,179 votes were cast, so the early vote in 2016 already represents a substantial portion of the overall vote.

The data comes with a number of caveats. The poll was conducted by William & Mary University and TargetSmart, a company that works with Democratic candidates. It was taken before the revelation, last week, that the FBI is looking at additional emails in…



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