How ‘Weather Guessers’ Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong

The following excerpt is from an article that originally appeared on Allen West Republic

As Hurricane Irma was flexing her muscles coming across the Carribean, they damage estimates were climbing and climbing. As she crossed the Florida Keys and turned North, things looked very grim for Naples and Tampa, Florida. The weather guessers were off by only 20 miles. That makes all the difference. The estimates for damages came down by $150 Billion. How did it happen and what makes it so hard to be in the weather prediction business? Read on.

As Written by Brian K. Sullivan for Bloomberg:

Twenty miles may have made a $150 billion difference.

Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.

“We got very lucky,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann

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